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Dolphins vs Chargers October 13th, 2016 – Week 10 NFL Betting Preview
Well, the Miami Dolphins, with a 4-4 record, are at a point the season where they think they have really started to turn things around. And it’s not that hard to figure out – if you can establish a running game in this league, and do so with consistency, it’s going to make it much easier for everything else to fall into place. On Sunday, the Dolphins will go after their fourth straight victory as they take on the San Diego Chargers in a game that begins at 4:05 PM ET at Qualcomm Stadium. If you are a ChineseBookie customer, you can avail yourself of real-time wagering, even after the game has kicked off, when you make use of the technology available through Live Betting Ultra.
Dolphins vs Chargers – NFL BETTING LINE:
In the NFL betting odds posted on this game by the people at ChineseBookie, the Chargers are the favorites at home:
San Diego Chargers -4
Miami Dolphins +4
Over 48 points -110
Under 48 points -110
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Dolphins vs Chargers – Betting Trends:
- Season record: 4-4 SU,4-4 ATS
- Current Streak: won 3 straight games
- Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
- Miami is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami’s last 7 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games on the road
- Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
- Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s last 5 games when playing San Diego
- Miami is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing San Diego
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
- Miami is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against San Diego
San Diego Chargers:
- Season record: 4-5 SU,6-3 ATS
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego’s last 6 games
- San Diego is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games
- San Diego is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games at home
- San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego’s last 5 games when playing Miami
- San Diego is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Miami
- San Diego is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Miami
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego’s last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
- San Diego is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Miami
Dolphins vs Chargers – CJ’s Take:
The Dolphins are off a four-game homestand, which is obviously very unusual in this league. So we really haven’t seen the unleashing of running back Jay Ajayi on the road. But he has come out of the last three games as a star, with 529 yards on the ground. Currently he is averaging 5.9 yards per attempt, and interestingly enough, since he has been the featured back in Miami, Ryan Tannehill has had no interceptions and only two sacks. In the five games prior to that, he had been sacked 17 times and intercepted seven times. Obviously a healthy offensive line helps as well. The Chargers, in a sense, are still hanging in the playoff race, but the wild-card is the only possibility. They beat Tennessee last week, and to an extent, it is a similar team to this week’s opponent.
Of course, when we say that we assume the Dolphins are going to try to emphasize the running game first, and why not? Ajayi gives them a real opportunity for success in that regard. Naturally, he like to improve upon his performance last season when Miami played at San Diego, as he had just 27 yards in the 30-14 loss.
Philip Rivers has been without some of his weapons for much of the year. He had previously been missing wide receiver Keenan Allen and running back Danny Woodhead, who is one of the best in the NFL at catching passes out of the backfield. Now Dexter McClusterr, a multi-talented running back who also returns kicks, went down last week. Wide receiver Travis Benjamin has been listed as questionable, as has tight end Hunter Henry, the rookie who has surprised a lot of people and is taking the baton from future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates.
At the moment, offensive tackle Orlando Franklin is also in the league’s concussion protocol, and that certainly will have an effect on the Chargers’ passing attack. But there are a lot of positives the point to as well. Running back Melvin Gordon, who had a very troubled rookie season in which he was benched a couple of times for fumbling, is really emerging as a great complement to what Rivers does. He had 196 yards on the ground against Tennessee, bringing his season total to 768 yards. And while he did not score a rushing touchdown as a rookie, he has nine of them at this moment.
ChineseBookie patrons also know that Joey Bosa, who sat out almost all of training camp in a contract dispute, is going to be a pain in the neck for the Miami offensive line to deal with, and he will also be challenged in the sense that he will, for some of this game at least, have to go up against tackle Branden Albert and/or guard Laramy Tunsill, who was also a first-round draft pick. These people have protected Tannehill well in recent weeks.
In terms of the trends with which you can make your NFL betting picks for this game, San Diego has covered four of its last five, and has also gone “over” the total in eight out of their last 10. Interestingly enough, as we think of San Diego as more or less a wide-open team, their defense has done a pretty good job against what Miami has recently been doing best. The Chargers have allowed just 3.8 yards per carry, and only one team so far has rushed for more than 100 yards against them. Conversely, the Dolphins have allowed 4.6 yards per rushing attempt, although they are the best in the NFL in allowing just 30.8% success on third down.
Next up for both teams:
- Miami at Los Angeles Sunday, November 20
- San Diego at Houston Sunday, November 27
By Charles Jay
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